Heat the oven to 350°F (175°C) and line a 12-cup muffin pan with paper liners. Whisk flour, cocoa powder, baking soda, baking powder, and salt together in a medium bowl.

In a separate bowl, whisk the eggs, granulated sugar, brown sugar, oil, and vanilla until smooth. Add the dry ingredients alternately with the buttermilk, mixing gently after each addition, then stir in the hot coffee or hot water last.

Divide the thin batter among the liners, filling each about two-thirds full. Bake for 18–22 minutes, until a toothpick inserted in the center comes out with a few moist crumbs.

Cool the cupcakes in the pan for about 5 minutes, then transfer them to a rack and cool completely. Meanwhile, spread the coconut in a single layer on a baking sheet and toast at 325–350°F for approximately 8–12 minutes, stirring every few minutes.

Melt the caramels with the cream or milk in a microwave-safe bowl using 20–30-second intervals, stirring between each interval. Stir in the vanilla and salt, then reserve approximately 1/4 cup of caramel for drizzling.

Mix the remaining caramel with the toasted coconut until evenly coated. Spoon or spread the coconut-caramel mixture over the completely cooled cupcakes, warming it briefly if it becomes too stiff.

Melt the chopped chocolate with the shortening or coconut oil, if using. Drizzle the chocolate over the cupcakes, followed by the reserved caramel.

Let the topping set for 15–20 minutes before serving. Store finished cupcakes covered at room temperature for a short period or refrigerate them for longer storage.